Table of Contents 1. Global Pressures and the Intersection with Viet Nam 2. Situation in TP.HCM: Demand returns but supply lags behind 3. A Shift in Perspective: Housing as National Infrastructure 4. Viet Nam: Opportunities from Policy Reform and Infrastructure Investment 5. Infrastructure as a driver: Expanding urban development space

Context: Urbanisation pressures and affordability gaps

Amid rapid urbanisation and housing prices far outpacing income growth, experts suggest it is time to reposition housing as an essential component of national infrastructure—on par with transport or energy. This approach is expected to help expand supply and support more sustainable urban development.

Global Pressures and the Intersection with Viet Nam

With more than two-thirds of the world’s population projected to live in urban areas by 2050, cities are facing increasing pressure to ensure both the quantity and sustainability of housing supply. According to the Impact report by Savills, around 1.6 billion people worldwide currently lack access to adequate housing.

This is driven not only by rapid urbanisation but also by housing prices rising significantly faster than incomes. A study by the International Monetary Fund across 200 global cities found that 90% are classified as “unaffordable”, with average house prices far exceeding annual incomes. Meanwhile, UN-Habitat estimates that approximately 96,000 affordable homes need to be built every day until 2030 to gradually close this gap.

Within this broader context, Vietnam is increasingly reflecting the characteristics of a rapidly growing urban market.

Situation in TP.HCM: Demand returns but supply lags behind

In TP.HCM, 2025 saw a strong recovery in liquidity, with approximately 11,500 transactions and an absorption rate of 82%, indicating a clear return of demand. However, new supply reached only around 8,600 units, largely from subsequent phases of existing projects, reflecting a gradual recovery in supply.

Notably, the shortage of affordable housing has become increasingly evident. Average primary prices reached around VND 102 million per sq m, with 56% of supply priced above VND 110 million per sq m, while units below VND 50 million per sq m accounted for just 12%.

This highlights a mismatch, with new supply concentrated in the mid- to high-end segments, while real demand remains focused on more affordable options.

As a result, there is a growing shift towards suburban areas and neighbouring provinces, as buyers seek options within budget while benefiting from improving connectivity infrastructure.

A Shift in Perspective: Housing as National Infrastructure

In this context, a globally recognised approach is to redefine housing as a form of infrastructure.

Unlike traditional thinking, this model places housing within long-term urban development strategies, closely linked to planning, infrastructure, and financial policy. Housing is therefore not only about shelter but also a foundation for socio-economic growth.

More importantly, this perspective helps address capital constraints. While housing projects typically operate on shorter investment cycles, institutional investors favour stable returns over 20–30 years. Treating housing as infrastructure can help bridge this gap and unlock long-term capital sources that remain underutilised.

In practice, several countries have successfully adopted this approach. Singapore stands out as a leading example, having integrated public housing into national infrastructure planning, enabling over 80% of its population to access quality housing. Meanwhile, cities such as London and New York City continue to face challenges in expanding supply due to constraints related to costs, legal frameworks, and capital.

Viet Nam: Opportunities from Policy Reform and Infrastructure Investment

According to Neil MacGregor, CEO of Savills Vietnam, the country is at a critical inflection point, with a long‑term vision taking shape as key fundamentals begin to align:

“As we enter 2026 with a positive sentiment, the Government continues to drive growth and focus on removing market bottlenecks. Legal reforms and massive investment in infrastructure will be the keys to improving supply in the coming years.”

From 2026 onwards, the market will operate under new legal frameworks and updated land pricing mechanisms. While these may increase costs in the short term, they are expected to create a more transparent and consistent environment—particularly in land valuation and project approvals. 

In the medium term, TP.HCM is expected to add approximately 58,000 apartments from 80 projects between 2026 and 2028, with the eastern area accounting for around 50% of total supply, continuing to lead thanks to infrastructure advantages.

Infrastructure as a driver: Expanding urban development space 

At the same time, large-scale public investment in key infrastructure projects is creating new growth momentum. Developments such as Ring Road 3, Ring Road 4 TP.HCM, and Metro Line 2 (Ben Thanh – Tham Luong) are not only facilitating urban decentralisation but also opening up new residential corridors. 

When combined with transit-oriented development (TOD) models and the spillover effects from Long Thanh International Airport, the market is expected to see the emergence of more sustainable residential growth hubs. 

MacGregor notes, “In the long run, when housing is planned and developed in sync with infrastructure, the market will have the opportunity to expand supply more sustainably while improving accessibility for owner-occupiers." 

Vietnam’s housing challenge reflects global trends, but it also presents an opportunity to move faster with the right approach. 

Shifting from short-term development thinking to a long-term strategy-where housing is treated as infrastructure-will not only improve supply but also lay the foundation for a more integrated, sustainable urban ecosystem that better meets real housing demand.