As mortgage costs continue to rise, homebuyers and investors are taking a more cautious approach to financial decisionmaking. According to experts, this shift should not be interpreted as a negative signal for the real estate market. Instead, it reflects a necessary adjustment toward a more sustainable trajectory. 

According to Mai Thanh Thao, Associate Director of Banking & Corporate Services at Savills Vietnam, the increase in interest fees at the beginning of 2026 is largely cyclical, reflecting typical credit activity within the banking system. 

Following a year-end surge in disbursements and strong borrowing demand in the early months of the year, banks tend to reassess their credit portfolios and adjust interest rates to balance capital costs and risk appetite.  

As institutions approach their allocated credit limits, lending criteria become more selective, particularly for real estate-related loans.This represents a measured rebalancing between growth objectives and risk management, rather than an abrupt tightening of market conditions. 

Shifting Market Behaviour Amid Rising Capital Costs 

From a market perspective, higher capital costs often lead to more cautious financial decisions. However, this does not equate to a decline in demand. Currently, housing demand remains resilient, especially in major urban centres where urbanisation continues to accelerate; the significant change is in buyer behaviour. 

Owner-occupiers are becoming more financially prudent, prioritising affordability and suitability over speculative factors such as popular locations or high-end amenities. Meanwhile, investors, especially those relying heavily on leverage, are facing increased pressure as capital costs begin to approach, or even exceed, expected returns. 

The result is that investment strategies are shifting away from speculative “buy-and-hold for appreciation” models toward a stronger focus on asset performance and income-generating potential. 

Liquidity Differentiation Across Property Types 

One of the most noticeable impacts of a high-interest-rate environment is the growing divergence in liquidity across different property segments. 

Assets that rely heavily on price appreciation, such as suburban land plots, projects with incomplete legal status, or high-end products exceeding real demand, are likely to face greater pressure. 

Conversely, properties tied to real usage demand or stable income streams continue to demonstrate stronger absorption. These include mid-range apartments, completed homes in established residential areas, mid-sized office spaces, rental housing, serviced apartments in high-demand locations, and centrally located shophouses with stable tenants. 

In this context, the market is gradually transitioning from speculative investment driven by price expectations to a model grounded in real value and cash flow generation. 

Beyond interest rates, housing supply dynamics remain a key factor shaping market performance in HCMC. New supply continues to be constrained, with most additions coming from later phases of existing developments rather than entirely new projects. As a result, the development pipeline will require more time to recover fully. 

According to Savills data for Q4/2025, the average primary apartment price in HCMC reached VND 102 million per sm, continuing its upward trend as new supply remains concentrated in the mid- to high-end segments. 

Units priced above VND 110 million per sm accounted for 56% of new supply, while those below VND 50 million per sm contributed 12%, highlighting a significant shortage of affordable housing. 

Strategic Considerations for Buyers and Investors 

With housing prices remaining elevated and affordable supply increasingly scarce, there is a growing shift toward suburban areas and neighbouring provinces. Locations such as (former) Binh Duong and the eastern corridors of HCMC are gaining attention due to their relatively accessible pricing, alongside the development of large-scale urban projects and improved regional connectivity. 

Between 2026 and 2028, 58,000 new apartments, from 80 projects, will enter the southern market. The eastern region is projected to account for half of this supply and play a leading role. In the short term, new supply will largely come from later phases of existing developments or relaunched projects. 

For buyers utilising mortgage financing, Savills experts emphasise the importance of prudent financial risk management in three easy steps. 

First, maintain a reasonable loan-to-value ratio. Buyers should not rely solely on initial preferential interest rates but must assess their repayment capacity under floating rate conditions following the incentive period. 

Second, prioritise properties with clear legal status, immediate usability, and intrinsic value. These factors not only mitigate risk but also enhance long-term liquidity. 

Finally, maintaining a financial buffer equivalent to six to twelve months of loan repayments is considered a critical safeguard against potential fluctuations in interest rates or income. Savills advises that, in an environment demanding greater financial discipline, buyers and investors with a longterm perspective and a focus on real asset value will be better positioned to capitalise on opportunities in the next phase of the real estate cycle. 

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