“New landmark openings are accelerating a quality-driven shift in Guangzhou’s retail market, particularly in leading secondary locations where both environment and tenant profiles are improving.” —— Carlby Xie, Savills Research

Retail upgrade gaining momentum

• Four new shopping centres opened in 2025, adding 337,000 sqm of retail space. Citywide stock rose 3.4% YoY to 7.82 million sqm by end-2025.

• Leasing demand was broadly in line with 2024, as most retailers stayed cautious on expansion and new store openings.

• The citywide vacancy rate edged up 0.2 ppts YoY to 12.4% by end-2025.

• First floor rents eased to an average of RMB606.8 psm pmth by end-2025, down 0.2% YoY.

• The market is moving into an upgrade phase, with more established developer-operators expanding their presence in Guangzhou. However, uncertainty in 2026 remains high, driven by macro and consumer conditions as well as new supply delivery risk.

• Six projects, totalling around 650,000 sqm of retail GFA, are scheduled to complete in 2026. The actual pipeline may shift depending on construction progress and retailer pre-commitment levels.

• Under the direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the government is expected to introduce more targeted consumption-support measures, which should provide near-term support to retail sales and leasing conditions.