The promise of a strong post-pandemic rebound has been thwarted by higher interest rates ex-Japan and China, and slower growth. Regional investment volumes are down 49% in the first half with little indication that things will pick up over the remainder of the year. Cash rich investors will be waiting for their moment.
Simon Smith, Asia Pacific
Australia
“As inflation gradually eases and the central bank nears the end of it its tightening cycle, we expect investment activity to gain momentum, buoyed by global capital’s preference to increase its exposure to Australia.” – Katy Dean, Australia
China
“The optimism seen at the start of the year has been replaced by calls for the government to prop up the economy. The property sector is only slowly emerging from three years of covid restrictions battered and bruised and with a consumer class less willing to be as spendthrift as they have been in the past.” – James Macdonald, China
Indonesia
“The national property market showed an improving trend to mid-2023, even though it has been faced with global economic pressures, leading to weakness in some sectors.” – Tommy Henria Bastamy, Indonesia
Hong Kong
“With borrowing costs reaching 6% to 7% investors are less interested in once attractive investment properties yielding 5%, but this has not deterred end users who are more active in the market.” – Jack Tong, Hong Kong
India
“Despite global uncertainties, India performed reasonably well in Q2/2023, mainly owing to domestic factors. Foreign investors too played a role, placing long-term bets on Indian real estate as evidenced by some big-ticket office deals.” – Arvind Nandan, India
Japan
“Japan’s economy is recovering after reopening. Investors have shown a lot of interest in Japanese equities, and the stabilised interest rate environment is also likely to maintain interest in local real estate.” – Tetsuya Kaneko, Japan
Pakistan
“Despite strong macroeconomic headwinds, Lahore’s retail market has remained resilient in Q2/2023, with high occupancy levels and more upcoming supply to service the city’s retail needs which weren’t previously being adequately met.” – Nadine Malik, Pakistan
Philippines
“A challenging economic landscape and changing working practices have resulted in elevated vacancy rates and softer rents across most districts, a situation unlikely to turn around until at least 2025 unless a new demand driver appears.” – Fred Rara, Philippines
Malaysia
“The first six months of 2023 saw increased activity in the retail and development land segments, which had previously been muted, as the logistics, industrial and data centre sectors dominated activity in 2021-2022.” – Nabeel Hussain, Malaysia
Singapore
“Although high interest rates are spooking institutional investors, ultra-high net worth individuals have been relatively inured.” – Alan Cheong, Singapore
South Korea
“Transaction activity in the Seoul office sector is showing signs of resuming backed by strong supply-demand fundamentals on the leasing side and rebounding investor confidence.” – JoAnn Hong, South Korea
Taiwan
“Transaction activity rebounded this quarter reflecting the fact that core assets remain attractive to cash buyers as high mortgage rates cause investors with significant leverage to remain on the sidelines.” – Erin Ting, Taiwan
Thailand
“Bangkok's retail market is awaiting the entry of more major global brands, which should help to foster a more dynamic post-pandemic retail landscape. Competition among major retailers meanwhile is intensifying as they integrate increasingly innovative elements into their formats." – Puncharas Angkeaw, Thailand
Vietnam
“The SBV has lowered interest rates to support growth and FDI inflows remain sound. New regulations like Resolution 33 and Decree 10 which support debt restructuring will be positive for real estate and will boost transparency, which is positive for sustainable growth in the long term.” - Troy Griffiths, Vietnam
