The third quarter proved to be another nervous one for regional property markets beset by potential challenges on a number of different fronts, but positive economic growth, low interest rates and plenty of unallocated capital have kept the show on the road in most markets despite broader based trade concerns. Predicting the outcome of largely politically-driven uncertainties is a new twist for investors.
Simon Smith, Savills Research
Australia
Despite all time low interest rates, the economy remains relatively subdued, however we remain optimistic about the Australian Real Estate market for the next 12-18 months as investors chase high quality yield. These views are supported by continued low interest rates, evolving government policy focusing on employment creation and infrastructure spend, positive immigration, and a supportive undervalued currency. We prefer office and industrial at this point as further cap rate compression is expected.
China
Slower economic growth and continued uncertainty weigh on corporate occupier demand despite government attempts to improve the domestic business environment, attract new overseas investment and open new sectors to international competition.
Hong Kong
With so few deals, price discovery is challenging but indications are that values are holding up for now. Any resolution looks unlikely until 2020 when investors may take the temperature of the market post-Chinese New Year. If there has been little progress at that point, broader price capitulation is possible.
India
The pace of reform has picked up notwithstanding the slowdown on the economic front. The lowering of corporate tax rates, announced in September 2019, is expected to enhance corporate confidence and boost the already strong demand for office space across major commercial centres in India.
Indonesia
The Jakarta property market will continue to attract developers and investors after the recent government announcement to relocate the capital city to Kalimantan. As the largest metropolitan area and key financial hub in the country, Jakarta still has a lot of potential across various market segments. With the economy starting to gear up after the cabinet announcement in October, the property market is slowly gathering momentum, and this is being reflected in take-up levels across all sectors.
Japan
The Japanese economy experienced stable growth in Q2/2019, supported by solid consumption levels. There are macro headwinds aplenty, but political and economic stability are positives, while low interest rates continue to attract investors.
Malaysia
Two positive pieces of news from the Budget 2020 include: the lowering of the RPGT for property acquired before 2013; and the reduction of foreigners' minimum acquisition value threshold for primary high-rise residential property ownership from RM1mil to RM600,000 in urban areas.
Singapore
Singapore’s investment sales market appears to be holding up well in a sea of uncertainty and low economic growth.
Korea
Korea’s office investment market continues to be backed by strong demand from owner occupiers and value add players for usage conversion. The 2019 total investment volume is likely to end the year close to 2018 levels when deals hit an historical high.
Taiwan
Buyer confidence in the Taipei commercial property market is growing. Office end-users will continue to play a key role, as more new office projects are launched with a positive knock-on effect on deal volumes.
Thailand
A strong Thai Baht and poor international trade sentiment are proving to be a drag on GDP, though hospitality investment remains bullish on strong future arrivals projections.
Vietnam
Capital market pressure is building fuelled by an expanding domestic economy and robust foreign investment. However, strong anti-corruption measures continue to result in administrative delays impacting the development process. Over the short term major infrastructure projects such as metros and ring roads will complete in both Hanoi and HCMC, providing catalysts for development. Trade tensions, domestic growth and infrastructure delivery provide a solid backdrop for the industrial sector.
