According to Giang Huynh, Director of Research and Consultancy, Savills HCMC, Viet Nam’s real estate market is going through a restructuring and adjustment phase in preparation for a new development cycle. 

2025 represents a pivotal transition year, during which key fundamentals are consolidating, with 2026–2027 expected to mark a more selective and sustainable inflexion point for growth. 

Giang Huynh comments, “Entering 2026, the real estate market will not experience a broad-based recovery. Instead, macroeconomic conditions, monetary policies, and the new legal framework will collectively reshape the market in a more cautious and selective direction, with clear differentiation across segments and locations.”  

2025: Strengthening Macroeconomic Foundations 

According to Savills Vietnam, macroeconomic indicators in 9M/2025 show that the country's economy has maintained positive growth momentum. GDP increased by 7.9%, the highest level in many years, while inflation stayed under control at 3.3%. Total registered FDI reached US$28.5 billion, an increase of 15% YoY, reflecting foreign investors’ confidence in Viet Nam’s medium- and long-term prospects. 

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), in 9M/2025, total expanded FDI capital in HCMC reached US$4.8 billion. Among the three merged provinces, the former HCMC led in terms of newly registered capital with US$699 million, an increase of 92% YoY from 1,254 projects, accounting for 48%. 

These factors are laying an important foundation for the real estate market, especially in HCMC. In the residential market, primary supply in Q3/2025 reached 5,200 units, increasing YoY but still modest compared to actual demand. Absorption stood at 51%, indicating improved market sentiment, although affordability remains a challenge as affordable housing supply continues to decline and accounts for only a small proportion of total supply. This reality is driving demand toward suburban areas and neighbouring provinces, where prices are more accessible, and infrastructure connectivity is improving. 

In the office segment, the HCMC market continues to remain stable, with total supply close to 3 million sqm of leasable area. Average occupancy remains around 90%, even with new supply entering the market, reflecting resilient demand from tenants, particularly in the technology, information and communications, and financial sectors. Given the limited future supply, rental levels should remain stable in the short term. 

2026–2027: A More Selective and Substantive Growth Phase 

According to Huynh, expectations for the real estate market to reach a growth inflexion point in 2026–2027 are well-founded, as many fundamental factors are converging. From 2026 onwards, the market will operate under the full impact of the new laws (the 2024 Land Law, the 2023 Housing Law, and the Law on Real Estate Business) and the new land price framework effective from 1 January 2026. Although the new land price framework may increase financial obligations for developers and end-users, in the long term, it will create a more transparent and equitable investment environment. Long-standing bottlenecks in project land pricing are expected to be resolved, thereby improving market supply. 

At the same time, economic growth momentum continues to be supported by strong FDI inflows, while total retail sales of goods and services in the first nine months of 2025 exceeded VND 5.2 quadrillion, recording real growth of over 7%. These are direct supporting factors for demand in housing, office, and commercial real estate in major urban areas. 

One of the key drivers for the real estate market is the massive public investment program. Accelerated investment in key infrastructure projects over the next five years will serve as a primary growth engine, improving inter-regional connectivity, facilitating urban decentralisation, and forming new development hubs along major infrastructure corridors.

HCMC Market Outlook by Sector and Investment Implications 

By segment, Savills believes that industrial and logistics real estate will continue to play a leading role thanks to stable leasing demand from manufacturing companies. The residential segment will see clearer differentiation between the urban core (prices are high, and supply is limited) and suburban areas (improved infrastructure connectivity, and urban expansion). 

Meanwhile, retail and office real estate are expected to have positive prospects in line with overall economic growth and corporate activity, with advantages favouring projects in prime locations and with high-quality operations. 

Overall, Savills believes that the next growth cycle of Viet Nam’s real estate market will be more clearly established during the 2026–2027 period, more selectively and sustainably. 

Huynh emphasises, “Although challenges remain, such as high land costs, affordability constraints for genuine homebuyers, and risks from external macroeconomic volatility, real estate is still considered a stable long-term asset accumulation channel. However, in this new context, the market requires investors to be more cautious, focusing on asset quality, legal status, and actual operating performance, rather than chasing short-term expectations.”  

For deeper insights into the latest market trends and access to exclusive analytical reports, contact Savills today. Our experts are ready to help you make the most informed investment decisions. Savills Research Services EXPLORE OUR SERVICE VIEW LATEST RESEARCH

Read more:

• Viet Nam’s Real Estate Outlook 2035
• Why Housing Must Be Recognised As National Infrastructure