As housing prices in HCMC continue to rise, the solution to the housing challenge may not lie solely in prices, but in long-term planning and population distribution strategies.

According to the Savills Property Price Index (SPPI), in Q2/2025, HCMC’s Housing Index increased by 3 points quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 8 points year-on-year(YoY), reaching 134 points; the highest level since the index was launched.  

Both the primary and secondary markets recorded price increases, particularly in projects with ownership certificates or purchase contracts. Primary prices increased by 7% YoY, driven mainly by new launches in District 2 and re-sales of Grade A projects in District 1. Secondary prices also increased, particularly in the eastern and southern areas.

Despite being supported by public infrastructure investment and low interest rates, new supply remains limited. The absorption rate stood at a moderate 45%, with over 2,400 apartments sold. High prices have pushed many buyers toward nearby provinces such as Binh Duong and Long An, where more affordable housing is available.

Planning and Infrastructure is the Key to Balancing HCMC’s Housing Market

At the first meeting of the Central Steering Committee on Housing and Real Estate Market Policies, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh posed a critical question: “Why do apartment prices keep rising?” and urged ministries to propose specific solutions. 

This underscores the ongoing challenges faced by major urban centres such as HCMC. According to Savills Vietnam, the housing market remains active due to strong demand and infrastructure development; however, fundamental issues such as urban planning, legal procedures, and financial support mechanisms must be addressed to balance supply and demand and stabilise prices in the long term. 

Cao Thi Thanh Huong, Senior Manager, Research at Savills Vietnam, notes: 

“The issue of home ownership or meeting housing demand does not solely depend on buyers’ affordability; it is a fundamental matter of national socio-economic policy planning. The Government should not directly interfere with developers’ pricing strategies but rather focus on easing legal bottlenecks, planning new economic zones, and investing in infrastructure to foster balanced urbanisation and population decentralisation. 

HCMC’s housing supply remains constrained by legal obstacles, while genuine demand remains high. The supply-demand imbalance keeps prices elevated despite reduced volatility. Infrastructure expansion and population decentralisation are seen as fundamental solutions to ease pressure on the city centre. With Metro Line 1 operational from March 2025, travel time between central HCMC and Binh Duong is reduced to 20–30 minutes, paving the way for new residential and commercial hubs outside the city core.

“This is a hard-earned lesson for many countries,” Huong said. “Successful population decentralisation must begin with infrastructure and urbanisation. When socio-economic planning aligns with infrastructure, allocating residential land along transit corridors accelerates both commercial and social housing projects, diversifying supply for homebuyers.” 

In parallel, financial support policies are another crucial pillar. The Government is currently studying the establishment of a National Housing Fund, a model proven effective in Singapore and South Korea, to allow residents access to low-interest, long-term loans, while developers receive investment incentives and land access. 

“This model creates a win-win outcome,” Huong shares. “Buyers receive affordable financing, and developers are encouraged to supply more budget-friendly homes, helping the market move toward greater balance and sustainability.” 

Savills concluded that when infrastructure, planning, and financial mechanisms are implemented cohesively, HCMC will be better positioned to address population decentralisation, balance supply and demand, and stabilise long-term housing prices. Expanding the city’s urban footprint through regional connectivity will not only redistribute population density but also create room for housing segments suited to genuine buyers. 

Huong emphasised, “To truly resolve the housing challenge, it must be viewed as a policy and planning issue, not merely a business concern of real estate enterprises.”

Learn more about our Research Service service.