In The Cool Strategy, we explored the structural tailwinds driving investor appetite for cold storage. Now, we turn to the real-world performance of the sector - where Australia stands, how it compares globally, and why its growth story is only just beginning.

Per capita lag creates investment opportunity

In higher-income nations, refrigerated warehouse capacity ranges from 0.3 to 0.9 cubic metres per capita. In 2020, Australia sat at the lower end, 0.4 cubic metres per urban resident, and despite rapid population growth and an urbanisation rate of nearly 91%, that figure has barely shifted. Australia now lags behind the US, the Netherlands, Canada, and the UK.

How much new cold store space is needed?

The Refrigerated Warehouse and Transport Association of Australia (RWTA) estimates that by 2028, the country will need:

• +400,000 sqm of new cold storage to match US per capita levels
• +1.3 million sqm to match the Netherlands

This gap underlines Australia’s position as an emerging cold storage market and presents a clear opportunity for developers and investors to meet unmet demand, particularly in urban areas where cold storage infrastructure pressures are most acute.

Growing populations intensifies the pressure

More people means more demand for fresh produce, frozen goods, and pharmaceuticals, especially in dense urban areas where last-mile efficiency is vital. Healthcare and pharmaceutical supply chains are also expanding in growth corridors, adding to the strain on temperature-controlled capacity.

Australia is forecast to post one of the fastest population growth rates among developed economies (including US, UK, Canada, Europe), with a 12% increase by 2034 (Deloitte Access Economics), reinforcing long-term demand for cold storage and distribution networks.

Cold chain expansion

The Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA) estimated global refrigerated capacity at 719 million m³ in 2020, up 17% from 2018. If that growth continued at a 5.3% CAGR, capacity would be about 841 million m³ by 2024, though this likely understates the true expansion due to significant growth in M&A activity and new development activity.

Today, the GCCA’s Top 25 operators control 207 million m³ of cold space, a 10% rise in just one year. The US, India, and China account for over half of global capacity, reflecting the scale of rising demand and sustained investment in cold storage infrastructure.

Up Next: The Heat Behind the Freeze

Australia’s capacity shortfall is clear — but what’s driving the demand? In our next post of the Cold Storage series, we unpack the demographic, economic, and trade forces powering long-term growth in cold storage.

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The postings by any individual on any blog do not necessarily represent the position of Savills, its strategies or opinions.