In Savills Q1/2025 Market Brief, the apartment and condominium sector marked a period of notable fluctuation in both Ho Chi Minh City and Ha Noi. While Ho Chi Minh City faced limited new supply and softened demand due to seasonal factors, Ha Noi experienced strong momentum from large-scale township developments, with primary prices continuing to set new records.

1/ HCMC apartment market

New supply declines, transactions slow down

Due to the impact from the Lunar New Year and delays in legal procedures, the new apartment market in HCMC recorded a significant decline in supply during Q1/2025. According to statistics, only around 800 new units were launched during the quarter, representing a 70% decrease compared to the previous quarter. However, this still reflects a 29% year-on-year increase. Notably, the majority of this new supply came from subsequent phases of large-scale projects concentrated in Thu Duc City and Binh Tan District. The only brand-new project launched in this quarter was The 9 Stellars – Alta Heights, located in District 9.

The mid-end and affordable segments continued to dominate the new supply. All newly launched units during the quarter belonged to Grade B and Grade C categories. Within these, the affordable housing segment (defined by unit prices below VND 50 million/m² net floor area) remained scarce. This accounted for just 13% of total new supply, primarily sourced from Phase 2 of the Green Town project in Binh Tan District.

The decline in supply extended beyond new launches, impacting the entire primary market. In Q1/2025, total primary apartment stock in Ho Chi Minh City reached approximately 5,000 units, a 24% drop quarter-on-quarter and a modest 2% increase year-on-year. This shortfall was largely driven by the ongoing delay in re-launching paused projects, further straining market supply.

Apartment transactions in HCMC are slow due to seasonality and shortage of affordable supply

In Q1/2025, the apartment transaction market in HCMC recorded a significant decline in sales volume, mainly driven by post-Tet seasonality and the shortage of apartments priced within reach of the majority of homebuyers.

Specifically, the total number of transactions reached only around 1,400 units, marking a sharp 46% drop quarter-on-quarter. Nevertheless, compared to the same period two years ago, the market has shown signs of gradual recovery, supported by flexible payment schemes and preferential mortgage programs offered by developers and banks.

The overall absorption rate in the apartment market stood at just 23%, indicating a substantial stock of unsold inventory. However, it is worth noting that new projects located in prime areas, with clear legal status and infrastructure advantages, recorded impressive absorption rates of up to 61%.

This trend reflects a growing selectiveness among buyers, who increasingly prioritize quality of life and potential for capital appreciation. The sharp contrast in absorption rates among projects also highlights a persisting gap between market demand and current supply, particularly for reasonably priced products.

HCMC Market Apartment Outlook in 2025

It is forecasted that from 2025, the HCMC apartment market will continue to receive a substantial supply. More than 10,000 apartments are expected to be launched, of which the Class B segment accounts for 54% of the total supply. This is a positive signal for customers looking for mid-range housing products.

Areas identified with strong potential include Thu Thiem, Truong Tho, Long Binh, and Long Truong. The master plan not only provides a strategic framework for Thu Duc’s future but also promises to deliver a diverse apartment supply.

In addition to urban planning, authorities are actively working to resolve existing legal bottlenecks. Efforts are being made to accelerate project approvals, construction permits, sales contract signings, and the issuance of land use rights certificates (commonly referred to as pink books) for buyers.

These legal improvements are expected to provide a solid regulatory foundation, enabling stable and sustainable growth of the real estate market in HCMC for the 2025–2027 period, with Thu Duc City positioned as a key growth driver.

2/ Ha Noi apartment market

Decrease in units sold and new supply

In Q1/2025, Ha Noi’s new apartment market recorded a significant decline in supply, reaching 7,940 units, representing a 39% drop QoQ. However, compared to the same period in 2024, the new supply showed a remarkable 95% YoY increase. The total primary stock reached 11,168 units, marking a 33% QoQ and 14% YoY decline, reflecting developers' cautious approach in launching new projects.

The number of successful apartment transactions in Ha Noi during Q1/2025 reached 7,914 units, down sharply by 41% QoQ. Nevertheless, similar to supply, transactions rose 49% YoY, indicating a stronger market performance compared to the same quarter last year. The Grade B segment continued to dominate the market, accounting for 99% of total transactions.

A noteworthy point is that the absorption rate for new supply reached a high 84%, demonstrating that demand in Ha Noi remains robust, particularly for projects that align well with buyers’ needs and expectations.

Mega urban projects lead supply and transactions

In Q1/2025, Ha Noi’s apartment market continued to be strongly driven by Vinhomes’ mega urban developments. Specifically, three large-scale projects — Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Smart City, and Vinhomes Global Gate — dominated the market, contributing 89% of total new apartment supply. These projects also recorded exceptional sales performance, accounting for 90% of total apartment transactions during the quarter.

The outstanding appeal of these Vinhomes mega projects stems from their comprehensive and self-contained amenities, including vibrant shopping malls, diverse sports complexes, multi-level educational institutions, and modern healthcare facilities. Although these projects are often located in areas far from the city center, their robust infrastructure has fully compensated for the distance, offering residents a high-quality living environment that meets all essential needs for living, recreation, and education.

Primary apartment prices in Ha Noi show steady growth over five years

The primary apartment market in Ha Noi continued its upward pricing trend in Q1/2025. The average primary price was recorded at VND 79 million per square meter, up 5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and a significant 32% year-on-year (YoY).

Over the past five years, the average annual growth rate for Ha Noi’s primary apartment prices has been an impressive 22%, highlighting the strong capital appreciation potential of the capital city’s real estate market.

By area, Dong Anh District saw the most substantial growth, with an average price increase of 42% per year over the past five years — a surge largely attributed to the development of Vinhomes Global Gate. Meanwhile, Tay Ho District currently holds the highest average primary price, reaching VND 185 million/m².

Besides commanding premium prices, Tay Ho has also shown remarkable price growth, ranking second with an average increase of 40% per year over five years. This trend reflects the attractiveness and value appreciation potential of strategically located areas with well-developed infrastructure.

Large price gaps between primary and secondary markets in grade a projects

In Q1/2025:

• The average secondary apartment price was VND 60 million/m², slightly down 1% QoQ, but up 41% YoY
• The price difference between primary and secondary markets:

- Grade A: 52%

- Grade B: 21%

This disparity reflects the high initial investment costs of premium projects, though their long-term value retention remains strong.

Outlook for Ha Noi’s Apartment Market (2025–2026)

The outlook for Ha Noi’s apartment market in the 2025–2026 period reveals notable prospects for new supply. In 2025, the market is projected to welcome approximately 7,400 newly launched apartments, with the Grade B segment expected to dominate, accounting for 67% of the total new supply.

Looking further ahead, from 2026 onward, Ha Noi’s apartment supply is forecast to surge, with around 80,900 units from 99 different projects expected to be introduced to the market. In terms of geographical distribution, the top three districts projected to lead in new apartment supply are Hoai Duc, Dong Anh, and Hoang Mai. Combined, these districts are expected to contribute 52% of the total supply, indicating a shift and expansion of the apartment market toward outlying areas with greater land development potential.

The apartment markets in both Ho Chi Minh City and Ha Noi are entering a phase of restructuring, influenced by planning, regulatory changes, and evolving consumer behavior. Despite ongoing challenges, positive signals are emerging, especially in areas with synchronized infrastructure and large-scale developments.

To gain deeper insights and stay updated on the latest real estate investment trends, you are invited to download or view the full Q1/2025 Real Estate Market Report covering both HCMC and Ha Noi.

See more details in the Q1/2025 Market Brief from Savills just released.